Petroleum futures were seeing modest gains of under one percent in the overnight session on Monday following news of disrupted exports in Libya and amid flat to higher trade in US stock market index futures, despite weakness in Europe on the heels of disappointing German economic data. Market participants had a quiet day on the economic calendar before them.
Reuters reports that exports from the Es Sider, Hariga, and Ras Lanuf ports in Libya have been halted by the Petroleum Facilities Guard, who stated that this is due to a dispute over pay. No immediate comment from Libya’s National Oil Corporation was available. Also supportive this morning, Barclays raised its oil price forecasts for this year, citing transitory factors such as cold weather boosting winter fuels demand, particularly in Asia.
Asian shares strengthened, with the Shanghai Composite adding 0.5%, the Nikkei climbing 0.7% higher, and the Hang Seng rallying 2.4%. European shares were falling this morning, however. The Ifo Survey in Germany showed a deterioration in the business climate indicator, falling from 92.2 to 90.1 – below consensus at 91.8%. Both the current conditions (89.2) and future expectations (91.1) components missed expectations. The DAX was down 0.7% and the CAC 40 had fall 0.8% as of this writing. The FTSE 100 in the UK was also trading 0.7% weaker. Meanwhile, futures for the major US stock market indexes were mixed. Dow futures were down 0.2%, but S&P 500 futures were up 0.2% and Nasdaq futures had gained 1.0%. The US dollar index was flat.
The complex saw flat-to-weaker trade on Friday with weakness in equities and bearish US crude oil stock data from the EIA, as well as a rise in the US oil rig count. WTI dropped 86 cents lower, settling at $52.27/bbl, and Brent lost 69 cents for a close at $55.41/bbl. RBOB futures edged up 8 points to settle at $1.5487/g, while ULSD (HO) settled 2.46 cents weaker at $1.5760/g. New York Harbor ULSD barge prices weakened by 15 points against spot NYMEX according to Platts, to trade at a -0.50c/g differential. Meanwhile, ULSHO and HSHO differentials were steady at -10.75c/g and -15.75c/g, respectively. January propane prices strengthened on Friday according to Platts. Mt. Belvieu non-LST prices jumped 3.000 cents higher to 86.500c/g, LST prices strengthened 1.750 cents to 86.750c/g, and Conway prices added 50 points to reach 83.250c/g. The gains came amid supportive weekly US stock and export data from the EIA.
NYMEX natural gas futures fell 4.5 cents to settle at $2.446/mmBtu on Friday with a higher rig count and downward revision to the heating degree day forecast, despite supportive weekly storage figures from the EIA. The latest 1-5 day ECMWF outlook is supportive for the Midwest, calling for well-below-normal temperatures in Minnesota, Nebraska, and Kansas, but unsupportive for the East Coast, as above-normal temperatures are expected in most states, excepting New York, Vermont, and Massachusetts. The 6-10 day outlook is more supportive, for the East Coast, seeing below-normal temperatures in the Northeast, but above-normal temperatures are expected for the Midwest.
