Petroleum futures were trading in the red in the overnight session on Thursday amid an unsupportive note from the IEA regarding the global oil demand recovery and news that the blockade of the Hariga port in Libya ended, despite gains in European shares and in US stock market index futures. It was a quiet morning on the economic calendar, with market participants looking ahead to weekly US jobless claims data for further direction.
According to Reuters, the International Energy Agency said that global oil supply is still outstripping demand because of COVID-19 lockdowns and the spread of new virus variants, but vaccines should help with demand recovery. Also in the news, Libya’s oil guards stopped a blockade at Hariga port, which began last month.
Asian stock markets closed higher overnight with the Nikkei up 0.2%, the Hang Seng gaining 0.5%, and the Shanghai Composite jumping 1.4%. European shares were trading in the black this morning with the CAC 40 and the FTSE 100 both up 0.1%, while the DAX had added 0.5%. As of this writing, US stock market index futures were seeing gains of between 0.2% (Dow f) and 0.4% (Nasdaq f). The US dollar index was flat this morning.
Crude futures extended their gains on Wednesday amid supportive EIA petroleum inventory data figures and further weakness in the US dollar index. Brent gained 38 cents, hitting $61.47/bbl, and WTI added 32 cents to close at $58.68/bbl. RBOB futures lost 2.02 cents to settle at $1.6534/g, while ULSD (HO) edged up 43 points to $1.7610/g. Per Platts, New York Harbor ULSD and ULSHO barge prices strengthened against NYMEX by 15 and 60 points, respectively, putting differentials at +0.20c/g and -10.75c/g. HSHO barge price differential held steady at -20.25/g. Propane prices made mixed moves yesterday, per Platts, as Mt. Belvieu LST prices fell 87.5 points to 86.000c/g, while non-LST prices at the Texas hub rose 37.5 points to 85.750c/g. Conway prices dropped 2.000 cents lower to 96.750c/g.
Natural gas futures rose 7.6 cents yesterday, settling at $2.911/mmBtu with a higher heating degree day forecast and a tighter US market balance expectation for next week. The latest 1-5 day ECMWF outlook continues to see well-below normal temperatures in the Midwest and the Northeast, with large deviations below normal in the former. The 6-10 day forecast still calls for well below normal temperatures in the central part of the country, while mixed temperatures are expected in the Northeast. The EIA is due to release its weekly natural gas storage report this morning. Analysts polled by Reuters expect the agency to report a 181bcf withdrawal for the week ended February 5, well above last year’s 121bcf withdrawal and the 125bcf five-year average.
