Petroleum futures were seeing losses of over one percent in the overnight session on Friday amid losses in European equities and strength in the US dollar, despite flat-to-higher trade in US stock market index futures. Market participants awaited US international trade in goods data, personal income and outlays, the Chicago PMI, a consumer sentiment report, and the weekly US rig counts from Baker Hughes for further direction.
Japanese industrial production rose by 4.2% last month, beating consensus at 3.5%. Japanese retail sales fell 2.4% in January, beating expectations calling for a sharper drop of 2.6%. Despite supportive economic data releases, Asian shares closed in the red overnight with the Shanghai Composite down 2.1%, the Hang Seng losing 3.6%, and the Nikkei dropping 4.0%. Fourth quarter GDP for India rose 0.4%, matching expectations.
In European news, the Consumer Price Index in France fell 0.1% this month, while forecasts called for a 0.1% rise. Gross Domestic Product for the fourth quarter in France fell by a larger-than-expected 1.4% (vs -1.3%). On the other hand, the Producer Price Index in France rose 1.2%, above expectations at 1.1%. As of this writing, the DAX was down 0.5%, the CAC 40 was off 0.8%, and the FTSE 100 had dropped 1.4%. US stock market index futures were trading flat to higher this morning with Dow futures off 0.1%, while futures for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were up 0.2% and 0.4%, respectively. Unsupportive for crude oil prices, the US dollar index was up 0.5%.
Petroleum futures settled mixed near the unchanged mark yesterday with a bullish revision to Barclays’ oil price forecast for 2021 and weakness in the US dollar supporting, while losses in equities were unsupportive. Brent crude futures fell 16 cents to close at $66.88/bbl on Thursday, while WTI futures settled 31 cents stronger at $63.53/bbl. RBOB futures dipped 33 points lower to settle at $1.8923/g and ULSD (HO) edged down 17 points to close at $1.9066/g. The New York Harbor ULSD barge price differential to NYMEX strengthened by 20 points yesterday, according to Platts, to +0.10c/g, while the ULSHO barge differential weakened by 25 points to -13.00c/g. HSHO barge prices were steady at -19.25c/g to spot futures. Spot propane prices weakened yesterday, according to Platts, with Mt. Belvieu non-LST prices down 1.750 cents to 95.750c/g, LST prices losing 2.000 cents to 96.000c/g, and Conway spots dropping 17.125 cents to average 118.000c/g.
Natural gas futures fell 1.8 cents, settling at $2.777/mmBtu despite a stronger two-week heating degree day forecast, a looser market balance expectation for next week, and a bullish weekly storage report from the EIA yesterday. The EIA reported a 338bcf withdrawal from underground storage for the week ended February 19, above expectations at 333bcf. The latest 1-5 day outlook from the ECMWF calls for above-normal temperatures across the eastern half of the country. The 6-10 day forecast is more supportive with below-normal temperatures seen in the Northeast, while the Midwest is expected to see above-normal temperatures.
