Crude oil and refined products futures were mixed and little changed as of this writing in the overnight session on Thursday. The US dollar index was rising, which is unsupportive for crude, as was flat to lower trade in US stock market index futures, whereas European shares were trading mostly higher. Market participants were looking ahead to the Bank of England policy decision and to US labor market and Philadelphia-area manufacturing data for further direction.
In the news this morning, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and attorneys general from 16 other states have sued the Biden administration over its decision to revoke a key permit for the 830kb/d Keystone XL pipeline. Reuters reports that the lawsuit states that the President does not have the unilateral authority to change energy policy set by Congress.
Asian shares strengthened overnight, with the Shanghai Composite up 0.5%, the Nikkei rising 1.0%, and the Hang Seng climbing 1.3% higher. Despite a narrowing of the Eurozone merchandise trade surplus from E27.5bn in December to E24.2b in January, European shares were mostly higher this morning. The FTSE 100 was down 0.3% ahead of the BOE decision, expected to bring no changes to rates nor QE purchases, while the CAC 40 had added 0.1%, the DAX had gained 1.0%, and the Stoxx 600 was up 0.2%. The Italian merchandise trade surplus widened from an upwardly-revised E5.7bn in December to E6.2bn in January. US stock market index futures were mostly lower this morning. Dow futures were flat, while S&P 500 futures were down 0.5% and Nasdaq futures had lost 1.2%. Market participants looked ahead to weekly jobless claims, expected to slow to 700,000, and to the March Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (expected to rise to 24.0) for further direction.
Crude oil and refined products lost ground on Wednesday amid unsupportive weekly EIA crude stock data, and crack spreads narrowed following bearish gasoline and distillate inventory figures from the agency. Brent crude shed 39 cents, closing at $68.00/bbl, and WTI lost 20 cents to settle at $64.60/bbl. RBOB futures took a 5.41-cent tumble to $2.0471/g, and ULSD (HO) dropped 2.66 cents for a $1.9061/g settlement. In the New York Harbor cash market, Platts reports that ULSD barge price differentials to NYMEX rose by 5 points to -0.35c/g yesterday, while ULSHO and HSHO differentials held steady at -17.25c/g and -23.25c/g, respectively. March propane prices were mixed with a narrowing of the north-south spread, according to Platts, as Mt. Belvieu non-LST prices fell 2.00 cents lower to 90.000c/g and LST prices dropped 1.75 cents lower to 90.875c/g, but Conway spots added 25 points, reaching 85.000c/g. Weekly EIA inventories were neutral.
Natural gas futures on NYMEX fell 3.4 cents yesterday, settling at $2.528/mmBtu with warmer than normal temperatures in the outlook. As of this morning, the latest 1-5 day ECMWF forecast calls for warmer than normal temperatures in the Midwest and for much of the Northeast, and the 6-10 day forecast sees above-normal temperatures across the eastern half of the country, especially in the Northeast. The EIA is due to release it natural gas storage report for the week ended March 12 this morning, and a Reuters poll of analysts sees a 17bcf withdrawal. This would be just above last year’s 15bcf drop, but below the 59bcf five-year average.
